旺月轉淡 Q3推案13年最低
2017/10/13
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">蘋果日報【詹宜軒】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">建商信心不足，推案量縮劇烈。據《住展》雜誌統計，北台灣今年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">Q3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">總推案量不到</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1600</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，較</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">Q2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">減少約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">700</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元、季減幅逾</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，較去年同期減少約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，創下</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2004</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年以來</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">Q3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">單季推案量最低水位。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">今年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">Q3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">推案量銳減的主因，與房市復甦力道疲軟、房價持續修正，導致業者觀望推遲、或暫停新開發案有關。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">《住展》雜誌企研室經理何世昌表示，「往年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月都是推案旺月，但今年鬼月較晚，並佔據</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月逾半時間，旺月因此變淡月。」加上大台北欠缺具指標的新豪宅案助陣，推案量就難以放大。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">新北市</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">Q3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">推案量減逾</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，多數重劃區推案量縮，僅江翠北側重劃區推案持續增加。林琨凱攝</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">看屋人潮不減</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">觀察各縣市</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">Q3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">推案狀況，以台北市年減幅最多，約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">449</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，較去年同期少近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">25%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">。其次為新北市，推案量預估為</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">526</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，較去年同期少約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">23%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，量減最多的區塊則在淡水、新莊、林口與五股等地重劃區。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">璞園廣告總經理張嘉生認為，觀察市場實際推案狀況，其實並無特別冷清，看屋群眾也有逐步增加的趨勢，「以文山區『天賞大願』來看，開案以來平均每周來人可達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">40~50</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">組，上周舉辦活動，當日多帶進數十組民眾，其中有</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">4~5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">組具購屋意願。整體來說，看屋大有人在，只是交易仍顯觀望。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">推案量唯一逆勢成長的區塊為桃園市，達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">411.32</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，較去年同期增近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，尤其中路、經國</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">大重劃區，將是</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">Q4</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">到明年的推案重鎮。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">桃園逆勢成長</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">新理想廣告副總經理葉清宗透露，桃園市推案量大主要在重劃區多，「部分重劃區如楊梅、八德、龍岡一帶，房價約僅</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">字頭，對購屋客具相當吸引力，平均每</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7~8</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">組客人就有</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">戶出手，成交比不錯。」也因成交增溫，建商推案意願大增。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">但葉清宗也指出，「隨著新北市不少區域出現破盤價搶市，留下不少原先因高房價打算外移的買方，桃園市近期購屋客多為在地人，未來會否供過於求，將成一大隱憂。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">全年低於</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; color: #002060;" lang="EN-US">8</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">千億</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">何世昌分析，今年房市成交量雖已明顯回溫，但因預售屋交屋潮後，累積的餘屋量還不少，建商把心力放在銷售餘屋，規劃新案顯得意興闌珊，「估計全年推案量低於</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">千億元的機率頗大，可能成為金融海嘯後首個案量不到</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">千億元的年度。」</span></p>