終止連3藍 房市轉黃藍燈
2017/11/10
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">蘋果日報【詹宜軒】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">北台灣</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月新案市況創近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年最熱景象，尤以預售推案量體，較上月遽增達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年最高，拉升總體評分最給力。而</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月在多出</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">周周休</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">日、且有雙十連假加持的情況下，來人較</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月多出</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，可惜成交組數未有明顯放大。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">根據《住展》雜誌統計</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月風向球，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US"> 6</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">大指標評判總分飆升到</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">34.3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">分，較</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月大增</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">4.6</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">分，創下</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2014</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月以來新高，對應燈號則由藍燈、轉為黃藍燈。除議價率持平，包括成屋及預售推案量、來人及成交組數、廣告批數等，均較上月成長。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">業者推案信心爆棚</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">《住展》雜誌企研室經理何世昌認為，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月風向球飛高的主因，是業者推案信心爆棚，指標大案如雨後春筍冒出，至於看屋人氣與買氣回升幅度，則相對有限。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月成屋新增供給量逼近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">百戶，預售推案則更加踴躍，推案量超過</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">百億元，達近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年最大量。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">業者分析，受到</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">928</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">檔期帶動，推案信心大幅走高，北台灣除宜蘭地區外，各縣市均有案量逾</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元指標案釋出。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">在來人與成交組數方面，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月因多了</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">周例假及雙十連假，全月看屋來人組數，較</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月成長逾</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成。大台北成交表現，以有感讓利案獨秀，其中，中山區讓利案稍多，甚至有成屋案平均開價，比預售時大砍近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，而板橋江翠北側、淡海新市鎮、土城暫緩發展區，加上新莊市中心，皆因有持續釋出讓利價，市況最熱。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">五股區施工中的建案「微美嵐」</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月初進場，專案經理吳嘉倫透露，該案位於舊市區，價格雖與洲子洋重劃區不相上下，但因祭出首付</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">4%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">優惠付款方案，吸引不少區域客，「</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月周來人約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">20~30</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">組，每周維持</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">戶以上去化量，相較五股全區，成交表現不差。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">估計大好機率不大</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">桃園中路重劃區「國泰水秀」自</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">日進場，標榜銷售成數接近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，專案經理李振昌指出，該案成交單價</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">36~40</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">萬元間，雖高出區域均價</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成以上，但因地點正對公園、加上國泰品牌加持，磁吸不少區域客及林口、新莊輕移民，「由於買盤以自住客為主，除價格考量，建案品質也是出手關鍵。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">何世昌認為，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月來客、成交組數雖然增加，但以傳統購屋旺季的標準來看，表現仍屬差強人意，「其次，今年雙十檔期也未傳出僑胞買盤，顯示買盤置產意願偏低。估計未來市場大好機率不大，風向球只要不要再跌落到藍燈，就算不錯了。」</span></p>
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