央行偏鴿 最快Q3後才會升息
2018/5/4
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">經濟日報【陳美君】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">中央銀行昨（</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">）日公布第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季理監事會議議事錄摘要，文中指出，多名理事認為，國內外經濟前景仍具不確定性，加上新台幣匯率升值，若再升息，將推升新台幣匯率，衝擊企業投資布局；銀行主管解讀，議事錄摘要內容釋出多項「鴿派」訊息，台灣若要升息，最快也是第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季後的事。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">央行下次理監事會訂於</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">日舉行，銀行主管說，從這次議事錄摘要觀察，央行將連八季維持利率不變。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">央行首季理監事會議於</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">22</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">日舉行，此為央行總裁楊金龍上任後首次主持理監事會，央行理事會一致決議重貼現率</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1.375%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，連七季不變。不過，對於未來利率走勢，卻已出現不同聲音。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">有理事認為，利率維持不變，主因國內產出缺口仍為負值，儘管物價上漲，今年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">至</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月消費者物價指數（</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">）平均年增率仍低於</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">；但未來須持續關注物價上漲情形，「若未來數月通膨率逾</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，應審慎考量將來是否調整利率政策」。市場解讀，這代表央行升息的關鍵條件，就是通膨年增率逾</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">本季議事錄摘要裡透露，央行短期內不調整利率，其實與匯率有關。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">有位理事認為，央行貨幣政策動向，除考量通膨率及失業率兩項因素外，匯率因素至關重要。</span></p>
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