<p class="MsoNormal"><a style="background-image: url('img/items.gif');" name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">工商時報【蔡惠芳】</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">力拚業績持續成長，儘管年底有大型選舉、下半年房市充滿挑戰，但國建（</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2501</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">）、冠德（</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2520</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">）、遠雄建（</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5522</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">）、長虹（</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5534</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">）等建商，積極帶頭衝，第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季在北台灣推案，成觀察下半年的房市指標。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">國建近幾年獲利攀向高峰，雖去年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">EPS</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1.25</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">元，今年首季</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">EPS</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">為</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.33</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">元，略低於往年同期，但品牌加持、現金滿手，第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季依然信心十足購地推案，為</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年後業績暖身；新北市為國建今年推案重心，包括板橋江翠</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億、新店</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">40</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億「國泰豐格」、</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億「國泰悅」</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">案，不看淡房市的意味濃厚。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">冠德去年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">EPS</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">為</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.7</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">元，今年首季無新案完工挹注，單季仍虧損，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">EPS</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">為</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">-0.09</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">元；不過今年先建後售案和新案完工陸續加入貢獻行列，全年獲利成長動能備受矚目。今年計畫重點將自第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季爆發，將推出總銷</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">220</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元「冠德信義」、</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億「冠德微山丘」，兩大新案就有</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">300</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元案量蓄勢待發，衝刺今年的業績。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">遠雄建今年首季</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">EPS</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">為</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.67</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">元，優於去年同期近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">倍；去年以來陸續在土地存量上去蕪存菁，推案也著重剛性需求，第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季起將在北台灣推出</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億「左岸－悅河」、</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億「遠雄新時代」，在現金殖利率題材助攻下，也是市場指標。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">長虹今年首季獲利大噴發，單季達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9.33</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">元傲視群雄。鑑於現金滿手，長虹這半年積極返回土地市場買地，推案衝業績更不手軟，除台北市預售的「宏璽」持續衝刺外，最近還籌備推出</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億新案「長虹天馥」；法人預期，第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">至第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季還有多筆新案將入帳認列，全年可望獲利超過</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">個股本。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">市場人士認為，下半年房市面臨利率恐將上調的不確定因素，加上年底有縣市長大型選舉干擾、房市供給仍顯放大、房貸逾放比逐步上揚，建商對於未來半年的看法趨於謹慎；不過擁有品牌加持的大型知名上市建商，仍把握上半年時機積極籌備推案，其銷售成績也被視為下半年房市觀察指標。</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://img.chinatimes.com/newsphoto/2018-05-28/clipping/450/a28a00_t_03_02.jpg" alt="" /></p>