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蘋果日報【詹宜軒】 <span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">4月住展風向球在來客組數及廣告批數正成長撐場下，險守象徵衰退注意的黃藍燈底線，而各項觀察指標中，包括預售及成屋推案量、成交組數等，均較上月衰退。業者認為，建商不再讓利、姿態轉硬，是取決<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">5月燈號，會否落回象徵谷底衰退藍燈的關鍵。 根據《住展》雜誌觀察北台灣房市的<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">6大指標中，<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">4月呈現衰退者如預售及成屋推案、成交組數等。其中，成屋推案量衰退幅度最大，新增供給量減少至約<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">4百多戶，大部份是中、小型成屋案，缺乏大型指標案，而<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">4月預售案量雖較<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">3月減少，總量體仍逾<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">4百億元，包括台北市、桃園市、新竹縣市皆有單一案量逾<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">10億元的指標案進場。 《住展》雜誌企研室經理何世昌認為，<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">4月推案量下滑主因，為新北市建照審核延宕，「原先預計在<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">329檔期公開的指標案只得延推，使新北市在指標檔期，罕見出現新成屋與預售屋指標推案，雙雙掛蛋現象。」 建照審核延宕主因 另一值得觀察的指標，為整體議價率，近<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">1年北台灣市場成交價與開價差距不斷縮小，<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">4月甚至出現快速收斂的情況。何世昌分析，「買氣回籠，使得不少建案認為已無再降價必要，甚至調漲價格，議價空間變少，是使得看屋客雖仍持續成長，但成交狀況卻比<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">3月更差。」 買低不買高未改變 台北市小坪數案「耕云」專案經理陳沅賓表示，該案規劃<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">20、<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">29坪產品，成交單價約<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">80~85萬元，訴求低總價，看屋者多吸引年輕族群，「該區中古大樓單價約在<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">6、<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">7字頭，此案開價尚屬合理。且看屋者多為自住需求，對環境、建材、產品會更在意，考慮期勢必較長。現周來人逾<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">40組、開案<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">3個月成交近<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">6成。」 何世昌指出，「由於現下買方市場格局尚未改變，民眾仍傾向『買低不買高』，若<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">5月賣方價格不願放軟，成交組數可能會持續滑落，風向球總分恐難往上攀高。」 海悅廣告總經理王俊傑認為，美國總統川普在經濟政策的變革，恐牽動全球投資環境，「眼前第<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;" lang="EN-US">2季顯然無風無浪，不少海外游資仍鎖定回流台灣，幾個豪宅案如『和平大苑』已有成交表現，供給量較少的蛋黃區房市，現階段還是備受看好。但下半年會否有黑天鵝飛抵，就不能預測了。」 <img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="http://twimg.edgesuite.net//images/twapple/640pix/20170512/BN03/BN03_003.jpg" alt="" />