大台北 爆房市斷頭潮
2018/6/19
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">蘋果日報【廖珮君】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">房價低檔徘徊，投資客撐不下去湧現「斷頭潮」，已從大台北地區開始點燃。據大型行庫統計，今年首季大台北都會區的房貸逾放比，幾乎是「六都之冠」，除因大台北區放款比重高、單件放款金額也大外，也多是投資客齊聚處，房貸壞帳率居高不下，儼然成為銀行獲利隱憂。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">據金管會統計，全體國銀房貸壞帳從</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2014</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">88</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，走揚到今年前</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">173.9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，連</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年走升，壞帳金額跳增</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">倍多。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">行庫高層也憂心，房貸逾放比攀升，多是過去高房價買進的投資客慘遭套牢，且房貸寬限期期滿，支付能力出狀況所致，若未來利率走揚，得逾放攀升速度恐加快。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">一銀本季全面轉銷</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">據資料顯示，一銀首季大台北房貸逾放比</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.47%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，華銀也有</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.21%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，主要仍以新北市逾放較高；而一銀和華銀第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季全台新增房貸逾放約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3~4.5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元之間，平均每月新增房貸壞帳金額</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元左右。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">一銀總經理鄭美玲說，首季房貸逾放比高，主因是首季轉銷金額很少、但多數已提列呆帳準備金，預計第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季會全面做轉銷，房貸整體逾放比會降到</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.25~0.26%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">同業水準。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">她說，逾放非完全損失，一般可以收回</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，損失率約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，例如逾放</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，銀行最多損失</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3000</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">萬元，對銀行而言，房貸擔保率仍較足夠。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">逼近逾放警戒水位</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">法人分析，一般房貸是屬足額擔保，就算發生逾放，各銀行的提存數並不大，若要走到「轉銷」，除影響覆蓋率外，多會得再「補提」呆帳準備金，一旦得補提準備金，就會吃掉獲利。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">第一金日前召開法說，驚見一銀首季房貸逾放比高達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.39%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，為近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年半新高，其中僅大台北都會區就達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.47%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，逼近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">0.5%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">高逾放警戒水位，引發市場熱議。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">鄭美玲解釋，因第</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">季轉銷呆帳以慶富案的企金為主，房貸轉呆金額少，但若看新增房貸逾放金額，前</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">個月僅</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">4~5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元，和往年相差不大。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">她說，大台北逾放比高，主因是大台北區的放款量、單件房貸金額都很大，台北地區一個房貸金額，可能是南部</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3~5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">棟房子的房貸金額，因此當壞帳發生在大台北都會區時，逾放就會拉得高一點。</span></p>
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