<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="OLE_LINK27"></a><a name="OLE_LINK26"></a><a name="OLE_LINK25"></a><a name="OLE_LINK24"></a><a name="OLE_LINK23"></a><a name="OLE_LINK22"></a><a name="OLE_LINK21"></a><a name="OLE_LINK20"></a><a name="OLE_LINK19"></a><a name="OLE_LINK18"></a><a name="OLE_LINK17"></a><a name="OLE_LINK16"></a><a name="OLE_LINK15"></a><a name="OLE_LINK14"></a><a name="OLE_LINK13"></a><a name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a name="OLE_LINK4"></a><a name="OLE_LINK3"></a><a name="OLE_LINK2"></a><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK2;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK3;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK4;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK5;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK6;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK7;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK8;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK9;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK10;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK11;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK12;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK13;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK14;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK15;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK16;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK17;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK18;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK19;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK20;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK21;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK22;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK23;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK24;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK25;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK26;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK27;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">工商時報【黃惠聆】</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">美國聯準會</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">(Fed)</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">已啟動升息循環,但台灣目前還沒有升息的壓力,但國內房貸戶仍對升息感憂慮!根據永慶房屋調查,逾</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">成的民眾表示,對升息承受度上限僅</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">碼。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">該調查結果是永慶房產於今年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">月</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">16</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">日至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">31</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">日採「電子郵件」方式寄發永慶房仲網會員,回收有效問卷數為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">1006</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">份。在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">95</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%的信心水準下,樣本抽樣誤差為正負</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">3.0</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">央行何時會跟進升息呢?永慶房屋業管部資深經理謝志傑表示,根據該調查結果發現,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">61</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%受訪民眾者認為明(</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2019</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">)年會升息,其中</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">93</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%民眾為明年會升息</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">碼。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">若國內跟進升息政策,消費者對於升息的壓力承受度是幾碼呢?謝志傑表示,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">74</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%屋主對於升息壓力的承受度在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">碼內且占比由今年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">Q1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">67</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%提升至目前的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">74</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%,顯示賣方對於升息壓力的感受度正持續增加;另買方對於升息壓力感受度尤其高於賣方,買方對升息壓力承受度只有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">碼的比重高達</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">82</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">謝志傑指出,在去年因為只有美國啟動升息,受訪民眾對於「升息議題」感受度不高,但隨著聯準會態度從鴿派逐漸轉為鷹派、且下半年通膨正升溫,買賣雙方更關注升息議題及升息後對房貸所帶來的壓力。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">至於房價何時會落底呢?謝志傑指出,根據本次調查顯示,由於目前房市仍以自住為主力,價格彈性小,民眾尤其是北北桃與台中等</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">都都認為房價還有修正的空間,在各大都會區來看,民眾對新竹、台南與高雄房市相對樂觀,認為在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2019</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">年下半年前落底的機率約有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">成;至於北北桃與台中四大都會區則有超過</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">成民眾認為在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2020</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">年上半年才會落底。</span></p>