央行示警 當心升息風險
2018/9/28
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="OLE_LINK27"></a><a name="OLE_LINK26"></a><a name="OLE_LINK25"></a><a name="OLE_LINK24"></a><a name="OLE_LINK23"></a><a name="OLE_LINK22"></a><a name="OLE_LINK21"></a><a name="OLE_LINK20"></a><a name="OLE_LINK19"></a><a name="OLE_LINK18"></a><a name="OLE_LINK17"></a><a name="OLE_LINK16"></a><a name="OLE_LINK15"></a><a name="OLE_LINK14"></a><a name="OLE_LINK13"></a><a name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a name="OLE_LINK4"></a><a name="OLE_LINK3"></a><a name="OLE_LINK2"></a><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK2;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK3;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK4;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK5;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK6;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK7;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK8;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK9;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK10;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK11;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK12;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK13;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK14;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK15;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK16;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK17;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK18;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK19;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK20;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK21;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK22;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK23;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK24;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK25;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK26;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK27;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">工商時報【呂清郎】</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">中央銀行</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">27</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">日召開第三季理監事會決議,政策利率連九季不變,重貼現率續為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">1.375</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%,儘管短期內啟動升息機率低,但央行總裁楊金龍還是再次警示利率風險,強調「利率不會永遠不動,歐、日央行也都做出提醒」,尤其房貸戶除應警覺未來利率變動風險,更要注意貸款寬限期屆滿後負擔增加的問題。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">昨天央行理事會決議維持現行政策利率不變,主要是考量國內當前通膨壓力尚屬溫和,今、明年的產出缺口仍是負值,通膨展望穩定,且面對國際經濟前景存在諸多不確定性,下半年及明年經濟成長動能及景氣力道溫和,名目利率及實質利率與主要經濟體相較屬居中,貨幣政策持續「適度寬鬆」立場不變,有利物價及金融穩定。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">「但利率不會永遠不動,不只有台灣,日本及歐洲央行日前也都有提醒」,楊金龍指出,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">月理事會的會議紀錄摘要內容已提及升息風險,這次還是跟上次一樣,利率不會永遠那麼低,這也不是只有台灣會發生的情況,之前日本也提醒低利率只會維持一段比較長的時間,但不是永遠不變,歐洲央行(</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">ECB</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">)前次會議紀錄也表示,利率正常化會慢慢來,約是明年夏季啟動。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">央行也首度在新聞稿強調,基於金融穩定的考量,央行將持續注意金融機構的不動產授信風險控管,且由於購屋貸款的負擔率(即每月房貸還款額占家庭月可支配所得比率)目前逾三成,特別呼籲借款人應留意貸款寬限期屆滿後還款負擔增加,及未來利率變動的風險。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">但楊金龍說,「至目前為止來看,由於銀行的不動產授信嚴謹,呆帳情況也不嚴重,統計目前一般授信的呆帳率為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.27</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%,房貸呆帳率只有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.24</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%」。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">楊金龍強調,就當前不動產授信的情況來說,利率反轉並不是重點,比較重要的是許多房貸戶寬限期均將屆滿,負擔將立即加重,應多加注意。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">根據央行針對五大銀行新增房貸的最新統計,因合計占比約市場總量近四成,具代表性,新增房貸利率近一年來至今年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">月止,持續在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">1.63</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%以下的低檔徘徊。另外,市場關注的豪宅貸款成數上限六成管制,這次仍未鬆綁。</span></p>