<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="OLE_LINK27"></a><a name="OLE_LINK26"></a><a name="OLE_LINK25"></a><a name="OLE_LINK24"></a><a name="OLE_LINK23"></a><a name="OLE_LINK22"></a><a name="OLE_LINK21"></a><a name="OLE_LINK20"></a><a name="OLE_LINK19"></a><a name="OLE_LINK18"></a><a name="OLE_LINK17"></a><a name="OLE_LINK16"></a><a name="OLE_LINK15"></a><a name="OLE_LINK14"></a><a name="OLE_LINK13"></a><a name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a name="OLE_LINK4"></a><a name="OLE_LINK3"></a><a name="OLE_LINK2"></a><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK2;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK3;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK4;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK5;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK6;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK7;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK8;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK9;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK10;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK11;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK12;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK13;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK14;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK15;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK16;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK17;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK18;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK19;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK20;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK21;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK22;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK23;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK24;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK25;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK26;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK27;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中國時報【黃琮淵】</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">全球景氣不妙!財信傳媒董事長謝金河昨日引述美國財經雜誌《巴倫週刊》說法,手機、汽車和房屋堪稱全球經濟三大支柱,但最近跡象顯示,這三根支柱似乎開始搖晃,就股價來看,確實都不太好,衝擊不言可喻,全球的景氣正在反轉當中。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">大陸汽車類股</span></strong><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">慘不忍睹</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">本月出爐的《巴倫週刊》指出,全球經濟三大支柱分別為汽車、手機和房屋,只要各地民眾樂意買新</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">iPhone</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">、買新車,或是買新房子,景氣感覺就很旺,由此反推,若手機銷售、車市與房市疲軟,就是景氣由盛轉衰前兆。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">謝金河以車市為例,認為從</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">年全球金融海嘯迄今,汽車需求強勁成長,帶動周邊產業,像汽車零配件,甚至汽車的車用電子,但今年前</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">月,中國大陸汽車銷售年衰退</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">13.2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%,第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">季更不樂觀,今年確定出現衰退。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">謝金河更以「慘重」形容大陸汽車類股近期的表現,像東風汽車、一汽轎車、一汽夏利、金杯、長安汽車、長城汽車、吉利汽車&hellip;股價重者跌</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">、</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">成,輕者也下跌</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">、</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">成。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">英商大砍財測</span></strong><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">市場嚇呆</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">台港方面,不只和泰車股價腰斬,汽車零組件產業更慘,再往下看,原來在車用電子找到一片天的電子業也挺不住,像被動元件大炒是因為村田把產能挪向車用,現在供需逆轉,原來光學變焦鏡頭往車用玻璃鏡頭走,如今也拉警報,舜宇光學股價</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">個月跌掉</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">成。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">美國房市退燒</span></strong><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">下滑</span></strong><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;" lang="EN-US">25</span></strong><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">%</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">《巴倫週刊》指出,英國汽車零件製造商</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">Delphi Technologies</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">以產業情況比預期嚴峻為由,調降全年財測,此舉不止撼動全球汽車業,更讓最看空車市的分析師都嚇了一大跳,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">MSCI</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">世界汽車產業指數今年已下跌</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">13</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%,本益比降到僅</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">倍,情勢確實不樂觀。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">《巴倫週刊》認為,汽車產業眼前面臨原物料成本高漲,還有美國總統川普掀起的陸美貿易爭端,為美國和中國大陸的汽車銷售投下震撼彈,認為陸美兩國汽車銷售平平,在多重利空陰影籠罩下,無法判斷何時落底。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">至於另兩根支柱,蘋果及與其他科技股股價近期承受龐大賣壓,已經是華爾街觀察指標。房市也不再熱絡,至少美國房市是如此,從近來房市數據已見景氣擴張趨緩跡象,整體活動約較先前景氣高峰時下滑</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9pt; line-height: 23pt; text-align: center;"><img src="https://img.chinatimes.com/newsphoto/2018-10-29/clipping/656/b02a00_t_01_03.jpg" alt="" /></p>