<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">經濟日報【劉忠勇】</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亞太現有商用不動產投資上季出現逾兩年來首見衰減，反映各國央行紛紛升息，拉高房地產業者支應交易的成本，美中貿易戰也讓市場信心受挫。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日經新聞引述房地產資本分析公司（</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">Real Capital Analytics</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">RCA</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）統計指出，對這類收益性不動產的投資下滑</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">29%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">270</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">億美元，是九季來首見頹勢。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">其中的因素很多，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">RCA</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">指出，最主要的原因是幾個東南亞國家加緊升息來阻止本幣對美元走貶的關係。這股趨勢讓房地產業者支應買賣更加困難。中國官方管制投資和開發，也是原因之一，美中貿易戰也影響投資信心。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">此外，據</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">RCA</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月初發布的統計，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2018</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月一年累計的投資量僅增</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，也是六季來最小增幅。</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">個月的數字可平抑每季交易的波動。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亞太區最大市場中國商用不動產</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">個月以來所累計的投資額為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">341</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">億美元，較上年同期下滑</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">16%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，也是五年來最低金額。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在主要東南亞經濟體像是印尼、菲律賓、越南，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月止一年成交量較上年同期衰減逾</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">25%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">RCA</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">表示，這些國家都調升利率，「拉高房地產融資成本</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">」。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">日本成交量則降到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年金融風暴以來最低，下滑</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">4%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">；倒是南韓逆勢成長，因國內投資買氣旺盛，大增</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">23%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">另外，香港、東京和首爾是亞太商用不動產的主要市場，占所有收益性不動產的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">44%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。香港在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年取代東京居第一，首爾則是亞太地區的新星。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">RCA</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">亞太主管布雷茲科瓦（</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">Petra Blazkova</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）表示，「因房地產收益處於歷史谷底，融資狀況正要趨緊或已經侵蝕部分市場，景氣顯然轉往向下，至於投資人還不確定下一個投資周期是否臨近。」</span></p>