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經濟日報【葉憶如】 富邦金昨<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">(3)日舉行<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2019財經趨勢論壇，首席經濟學家羅瑋博土預估，明年全球經濟趨緩是必然，最大風險仍為中美貿易戰，若再開打，台灣<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">GDP恐難保<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2，會下探到<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.8%，預估央行還是會維持全年利率<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.375%不變。 羅瑋分析，明年經濟四大變數是貿易戰、美國成長態勢轉變、中國經濟成長趨緩與新興市場的資金外流，其中影響最大的是中美貿易戰。 羅瑋表示，富邦金預估三種未來可能情境，一是美中貿易戰未進一步擴大、美國聯準會<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">Fed升息三次；第二是美中貿易戰雖未進一步擴大、<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">Fed僅升息二次；三是美中貿易戰全面開打，<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">Fed一次都不升息，目前認為第二種情境最有可能。 三種情境對歐美、亞洲與台灣經濟的影響不同；第一種情境，明年美國<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">GDP估<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.5%、中國約<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">6.3%、台灣<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.5%，新台幣兌美元匯率全年波動區間<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">30.3~31.8元；第二種情境，美國<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">GDP估<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.2%、中國<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">6.2%、台灣<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.4%、新台幣波動區間<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">30.8~32.3元；第三種情境是美國<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">GDP估<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2%、中國<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">6%、台灣<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.8~2%、新台幣<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">31~32.5元。 羅瑋指出，若是第三種情境，台灣央行很可能透過公開市場操作，引導市場利率向下，以低利環境助企業籌資，全年也不會調升重貼現率，持續為<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.375%。 明年經濟第二項變數為美國經濟不再穩健成長，今年美國房市、車市成長趨緩，若明年市場利率上升，加重消費者貸款負擔，致經濟表現不如預期，全球經濟將失去最主要成長動力來源。 第三項經濟變數是中國經濟趨緩，對岸先前推動金融去槓桿及控制企業融資速度過快，加上貿易戰衝擊民間消費及投資信心，今年經濟疲弱，若大陸財政與貨幣政策效果不如預期，恐將加重下行風險，並波及周邊國家。 最後一項變數在新興市場資金外流，羅瑋說，<span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">Fed若持續緊縮貨幣，印尼、印度、泰國明年又有重大選舉，情勢較為動盪，都可能導致資金抽離新興市場。