<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="OLE_LINK27"></a><a name="OLE_LINK26"></a><a name="OLE_LINK25"></a><a name="OLE_LINK24"></a><a name="OLE_LINK23"></a><a name="OLE_LINK22"></a><a name="OLE_LINK21"></a><a name="OLE_LINK20"></a><a name="OLE_LINK19"></a><a name="OLE_LINK18"></a><a name="OLE_LINK17"></a><a name="OLE_LINK16"></a><a name="OLE_LINK15"></a><a name="OLE_LINK14"></a><a name="OLE_LINK13"></a><a name="OLE_LINK12"></a><a name="OLE_LINK11"></a><a name="OLE_LINK10"></a><a name="OLE_LINK9"></a><a name="OLE_LINK8"></a><a name="OLE_LINK7"></a><a name="OLE_LINK6"></a><a name="OLE_LINK5"></a><a name="OLE_LINK4"></a><a name="OLE_LINK3"></a><a name="OLE_LINK2"></a><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK2;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK3;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK4;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK5;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK6;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK7;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK8;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK9;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK10;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK11;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK12;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK13;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK14;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK15;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK16;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK17;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK18;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK19;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK20;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK21;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK22;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK23;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK24;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK25;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK26;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK27;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中國時報【陳碧芬】</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2018</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">年最大事的軍公教年金改革,對消費動能的可能影響曾掀起研究機構的論戰。元大寶華綜合經濟研究院最新研究報告分析,依經濟模型計算,直接影響</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">規模縮減至多</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.25</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">個百分點,民間消費將較實施前至多下滑</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.47</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">個百分點,且將是分年逐月消化衝擊。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">元大寶華綜經院長梁國源指出,年改對經濟成長與民間消費的影響,初步看來尚屬有限,如果退休軍公教人員在職期間有足夠的儲蓄,或有其它財富來源可稍微彌補月退休金的削減,是會有助於減緩年改的直接衝擊,可是,真正衝擊是來自這群高素質人才對政府的失望,對政府作出無言的抗議,情緒引發的外溢效果,削弱中長期台灣經濟成長動能,才是更大的負面因素。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">軍公教年改制度已施行</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">個月,受影響的已退休軍職人員有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">6,300</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">餘人,舊制身分已退休公務人員有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">萬</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">千餘人,舊制資格已退休教育人員共有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">萬</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">千餘人,三類族群的月退平均減少1萬至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">萬</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">7,000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">餘元,甚至需要從過去的儲蓄中掏出至多</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">萬</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">5,000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">元,方能保持原有的消費水準,包括中華經濟研究院、中央大學台灣經濟研究中心等研究單位,普遍把這段期間的內需疲軟究因於此。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">元大寶華綜經院對此進行經濟模型推算,假設年改前後平均消費傾向不變,根據受年改影響的退休軍公教人數占</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">年總人口比為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">1.7</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%推估,並考量公教人員所得替代率採階梯式調降,概估年改全數完成後,民間消費將較年改上路前下降</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.1101</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%~</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.4702</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">另一部分,該院指出,換算</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">年民間消費是</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">53</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%,據此</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">規模將因軍公教年改而直接減少</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.0583</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%~</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.2489</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%,梁國源指出,再納進</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">年底投保退輔基金的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">63</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">萬</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">千餘名在職軍公教人員,則</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">規模將直接縮減</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.0585</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%~</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;" lang="EN-US">0.2503</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">%。</span></p>