台經院：製造業景氣燈號連3藍 但衰退幅度縮小
2019/3/4
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">聯合報【張語羚】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台經院今天公布</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月分製造業景氣燈號，由去年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">9.74</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分，僅微幅減少</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">0.02</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分至今年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月之</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">9.72</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分，燈號續為代表景氣衰退的藍燈，達連續</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月藍燈，不過就景氣信號分數來看，分數減幅已明顯縮小。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台經院分析，全球景氣需求放緩，主要國家製造業活動萎縮，出口表現續弱，在國內方面，受惠於農曆春節前備貨需求增溫，抵銷部分減幅，令</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月出口與外銷訂單年減幅度收斂，加以國際油價與股市反彈回升，廠商對當月景氣看法轉為樂觀，拉抬售價面與經營環境面動，因此整體製造業景氣信號值較上月僅微幅減少</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">0.02</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">分，燈號續為代表景氣衰退的藍燈。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">從細部產業來看，台經院指出，在汽車及其零件方面，儘管農曆年前車市買氣穩定成長，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份新車掛牌數為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">44,142</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">輛，雖較上月成長</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5.13%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">，但相較去年同期下滑</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">7.92%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">，且進口車搶市，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月國產車新車掛牌數量僅占總市場一半，加上國產車外銷走弱，運輸工具類產品出口年增率由正轉負，影響需求面指標表現，因此</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月汽車及其零件業景氣燈號續為衰退的藍燈。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">在機械設備方面，受美中貿易摩擦影響，使得來自中國大陸的市場需求萎縮，但來自美國和日本的採購持續成長，加上部分專用生產機械適逢春節提前出貨，令</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月我國機械產品出口正成長，然外銷訂單與生產指數仍呈現負成長表現，故機械設備業景氣燈號續維持低迷的黃藍燈不變。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">整體來看，台經院表示，製造業景氣燈號雖已連續</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">個月呈現衰退的藍燈表現，然就景氣信號分數來看，分數減幅已明顯縮小，雖然近期全球經濟出現一些緩和跡象，如美中貿易談判朝正向發展、國際油價觸底反彈，金融市場表現亮眼等，有利於全球經濟前景展望，不過半導體產業正面臨向下修正，智慧手機、伺服器、消費性電子等各項科技產品需求轉弱，加上</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月因受惠於春節提前備貨效應影響，才使得國內相關製造業數據表現較上月為佳，未來仍須密切關注，還需要更多的數據支持，才能判斷國內景氣是否真的觸底反彈。</span></p>
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