北北桃房價回穩 銷售報喜
2017/4/9
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">經濟日報【郭及天】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">房市回溫，不少房仲業者在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月旗下門市的交易量均較</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">、</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月及去年同期增加一至三成。不過房仲業者指出，雖然目前仍處低利環境，但未來升息壓力存在，將成為房市回溫續航力的最大變數。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">根據房仲業者統計</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月旗下門市交易狀況顯示，無論與去年同期，或今年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">、</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月相較，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月房市交易量均有感回升，出現小陽春。信義房屋企研室專案經理曾敬德表示，大台北房價脫離急跌，台北市房價站上每坪</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">60</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬元，新北市平均房價每坪</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">33.1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬元，顯見政策不再強力調控下，民眾購屋信心也有所提升，遞延買房回籠後帶動量能反彈與價格回穩。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台灣房屋智庫發言人張旭嵐表示，受到機場捷運通車的利多題材帶動，新北及桃園買氣都有明顯回升趨勢，加上經過二年的價格修正，不少屋主售屋心態疲乏，年後降價意願明顯提高，因此以價換量，今年開春以來成交量持續上揚。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">永慶房產集團業管部經理謝志傑表示，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月市中心較市郊區活絡，交易件數明顯增加，高總價產品交易量也有回溫跡象，不少高總價屋主委售已超過一年，且在地價稅、房屋稅成本攀升下，壓力倍增，售屋心態軟化，以及認同價跌趨勢，願意讓價出售，加上民眾「買屋抗通膨」的預期心理發酵，趁機搶進，看屋轉趨積極，近期帶看、收斡旋金較</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月增加約一至二成。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">不過，即使房市緩步回溫，但未來可能的升息壓力仍為房市投入變數。謝志傑表示，美國升息循環已啟動，宣告低利率環境可能結束，國內利率政策與美國連動性高，未來跟進升息機率不低。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">調查顯示，近八成購屋者對於升息的承受度僅在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">碼內，亦即超過房貸利率超過</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.5%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">，就超過多數民眾的忍受值。目前平均房貸利率從</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年中的高點約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.15%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">，已降至去年底的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.83%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">，若升息將會影響民眾的購屋意願，成為未來房市的一大隱憂。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">謝志傑表示，購屋者對升息承受力呈現「</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">M</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">型化」趨勢，房屋總價</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1,000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬元以下的客群對升息最為敏感、升息承受度低，高達六成以上的民眾認為升息</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">碼就會超過自身房貸承受力；反觀總價</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3,000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬元以上中高總價客群可承受的升息上限為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">碼以上，亦即房貸利率</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">以上還撐得住，顯示資金充裕者對升息敏感度低、房貸負擔能力也較強。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">謝志傑認為，民眾普遍對升息接受度在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">碼左右，若依照過去央行每次升息約半碼，升息六次就超過民眾房貸負擔能力，升息成為未來房市最大威脅。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9pt; line-height: 23pt; text-align: center;"><img src="https://pgw.udn.com.tw/gw/photo.php?u=https://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/2017/04/09/2/3375297.jpg&x=0&y=0&sw=0&sh=0&sl=W&fw=1050&exp=3600&exp=3600" alt="" /></p>