<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">經濟日報【游智文】</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">市調顯示，六都房市仍在「殺價取量」階段，但已接近尾聲，業者預料第三季會進入「餘屋去化」新階段，房價跌幅將進一步縮小。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">吉家網不動產董事長李同榮表示，餘屋去化要多久時間，得看各地區餘屋及新供給量，大台北地區，估計建商手上餘屋至少三萬戶以上，可能得花二、三年時間才能完全去化。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">永慶房產統計內部成交資料今年第一季六都房價，相較上季，六都均下跌，但跌勢明顯趨緩，台南市季跌</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.2%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">最多，其他都在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1~2%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">之間。新北市跌幅不到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">和去年同期相比，桃園、台南持平，其他四都跌幅都在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">內，顯示過去一年來，房價修正明顯趨緩，部分地區甚至已開始止跌。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">和歷史高點相比，目前雙北市累計跌幅均為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">14%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">，並列第一，桃園</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">10%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">第二；中南部在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2~8%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">之間。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">李同榮表示，這波房市反轉先是急速量縮，接著殺價取量，</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年是最慘烈的一年，雙北房價年跌均逾一成，去年情況稍有緩和，但仍持續走跌，今年預料會更進一步趨緩。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">他說，目前各地市區低總價產品，因為首購、換屋等剛性需求進場，幾乎已不再下跌，但中高總價、供給量較大的重畫區因餘屋、新案廝殺，房價仍在回檔，因此預料平均房價仍會持續小幅下跌。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">永慶房產總經理葉凌棋也認為，第二季多數都會區房價緩跌格局不變，但跌幅將收歛，成熟地區房價跌幅在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">之間，蛋白區、蛋殼區或供給量大的重畫區，新屋讓價效應恐持續，跌幅可能超過</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中信房屋認為，房價跌幅已快接近購屋人滿足點，根據中信宅指數調查，買方願意以實價</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">折出價的，從上季三成多，第一季已回升到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">47% </span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">，將近</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">成。有購屋計畫的民眾，有四成是認為房價有增值空間。</span>&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">李同榮表示，下半年起，房市將進入「餘屋去化」盤整期，這將是漫漫長路，一直到市場價量達到平衡，才會出現明顯變化。盤整期間，房價將在極小的區間波動，部分地區房價可能上揚，但漲幅不會太大。</span></p>