7月預售案量 慘跌逾5成 新北讓利 桃園低單 較抗跌
2017/8/11
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">蘋果日報【詹宜軒】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">邁入</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月淡季，推案量驟減，加上暑假出遊潮，迫使交易量萎靡，</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月住展風向球跌落谷底藍燈，</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">大評定指標積分，回落至近</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">個月最低點。惟來客組數、報紙廣告量等，勉強撐住今年以來水平，業者預估，今年鬼門開得晚，市場淡季恐延續至</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">在各項統計指標部分，</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月預售案量較上月下滑超過</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，減幅最慘烈，新成屋供給量亦同步減少，僅剩約</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">400</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">戶，單一案量逾</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元以上的指標案，則僅士林區「草山清境」、桃園區「合輝雲門」等。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">考慮期較長</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">「草山清境」建商、統揚建設業務經理張國榮說，「全案已成屋，選在此時進場，是箭在弦上，進場前</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">周，周來人約有</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">餘組，近期則約</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">餘組。」張國榮透露，目前成交約</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">戶，「看屋客的考慮期較長，多在價格上會加以觀望。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">《住展》雜誌企研室經理何世昌指出，隨著新推案量銳減，</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月建案報廣批數，雖較</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月增加約</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8%</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">，但是該月有</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">個周末假日所致，若換算單周報廣量來看，反而比</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月少約</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，顯示業者銷售信心，並無明顯回升。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">來人與成交組數方面，</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月整體來人量較</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月稍微減少，成交組數受到議價率收斂、賣方價格變硬，以及天候不佳影響，較</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月減約</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成。何世昌分析：「如內湖、北投、文山、大同等區，人氣下滑最劇烈，主因在於該區出現蛋白區賣蛋黃價、</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">B</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">級地段開</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">級價格的個案，在蛋黃區建案多具讓利共識下，消費者對該類型建案自是避之唯恐不及。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; color: #002060;">議價空間大</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">據了解，近期如大同區，出現開價每坪</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">字頭的預售案，內湖區、南港區皆有建案標榜單價衝上百萬元之譜。對此，國立屏東大學不動產經營學系教授賴碧瑩認為，「以逛百貨公司為例，業者把衣服的訂價訂得貴一點，在折扣季打個</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">折，滿足消費者，與其說是悖離行情，不如說是議價空間可能拉大了。」再者，依據建商原始取得土地的成本、加上提早反映人事薪資成本的拉抬，會出現部分個案價格無法壓低的現象，也預期銷售戰線必須拉長。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 6.0cm;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">至於讓利案較多的新北市，以及單價較低的桃園，</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月市況表現相對較好。而</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月下旬緊接傳統鬼月，專家預期，房市可能會維持目前低沉的步調，直到鬼月結束。</span></p>
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