谷底衰退 9月風向球續亮藍燈
2017/10/6
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><a name="OLE_LINK1"></a><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">蘋果日報【詹宜軒】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年最長藍燈期現身，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月北台灣新案市場，受到民俗月衝擊，推案量、成交組數皆向下探底，使得整體表現落入今年</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月以來最差，更是自</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月以來連</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月亮出象徵谷底衰退的藍燈信號。但隨</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">928</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">檔期逐步加溫，專家預估，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月可望擺脫「慘藍期」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">從《住展》雜誌</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">大評比指標來看，成屋推案量、廣告量、議價率與來人組數等</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">項指標持平，預售推案量與成交組數則下滑。其中新案推案量都處於今年的相對低點，成交組數則較</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月減少最為劇烈。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">《住展》雜誌企研室經理何世昌指出，</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月因多數時間處在民俗月內，新釋出的成屋戶數與</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月差距不大，約</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">300</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">多戶，全都是中、小型量體的成屋案，單一案量達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元以上的指標案掛零，「直到</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月下旬民俗月結束後，預售案才大量湧現，全月預售推案金額接近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">350</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">億元。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">房價為成交關鍵</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成交組數表現不佳，較</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月減少近</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，尤以房價屢創新高的宜蘭地區，成交量更低迷。何世昌說，「</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月整體來人狀況不差，大台北地區熱銷案周來人組數甚至達</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">50~200</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">組，但買氣不振，買方縮手的關鍵在於價格不夠實惠。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">立信機構建設業務部副理黃志松表示，價格與品質還是決定銷售成敗的關鍵，以</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月初開案的「新外灘－雙江翠」為例，平均周來人</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">組，成交已破</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">成，均價每坪</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">46</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">萬元，「買方出手還算踴躍。」</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; color: #002060;">促銷花招吸買氣</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">為衝刺</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">928</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">檔期買氣，北台灣其實也有不少案場祭出特殊行銷方案，如新店區成屋案「富裔河」，打出每戶成交就送</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">輛麥拉倫超跑，該車款表價</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1168</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">萬元，等值於台北市小套房價。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">富裔實業專案經理吳少凱表示，該活動自本月起跑，全案僅餘</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">戶，坪數在</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">90~100</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">坪，「希望刺激去化剩餘戶別，買方也可選擇折抵房價。」以該社區成交總價平均</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">7000</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">萬元，若以車價折抵，等同打</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">折出清餘屋。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 23pt; margin-top: 9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">另如士林區「川普至善」強調除廣告戶、低首付，還送裝潢、車位；新竹湖口則有「明星大富翁」標榜</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">次買</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">戶，可享超高報酬率</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">13%</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">、</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">年包租等方案。從民俗月結束後，新案蜂擁而出、爆炸性促銷手段頻頻出擊來看，業者預期</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif;">月房市若買氣保持穩定，市況可望擺脫谷底藍燈。</span></p>
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