房價進入盤整期 過去一年房價回穩
2017/4/25
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">經濟日報【江碩涵】</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">根據最新的信義房價指數顯示,過去一年主要都會區房價已明顯回穩,北北桃</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季房價指數和去年同期相當,顯見政策不再強力調控,修正後的房市吸引遞延買盤回籠,過去房價急跌一段的房市,房價已經進入盤整期,不過和高點相比,台北市房價還是有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">11.5%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的跌幅,新北市與桃園市的跌幅則接近</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">7%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台北市</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季房價指數為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">274.44</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,分別年增</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.14%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,季增</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.28%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季的房價指數,與</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年的第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季與第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季相近,也就是過去這段時間房價呈現區間盤整,沒有明顯的漲跌,不過和高檔時期相比,房價指數仍修正了約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">11.5%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬元的房子房價較高檔時減少約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">230</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬元,不過,最近一年房價已經沒有明顯波動。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">信義房屋不動產企研室專案經理曾敬德表示,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季與過去幾季相比較,各地區各有些微漲跌,呈現區間的震盪整理,目前並沒有清楚往上或往下趨勢,不過可以看出房價已經明顯脫離急跌的時間。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">若從房價指數的變化來看,可以發現此波房市修正以北部最為顯著,新北市與桃園市與房價高點相比,房價指數修正幅度約在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">7%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">左右,台北市修正約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">11.5%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,主要是因為大台北地區的房價水準相對較高,加上政策針對性的調控管制,引領北部地區的房價回檔修正,但隨政策鬆手後,台北市、新北市與桃園市的房價都已經脫離急跌時期,進入盤整的階段。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">新北市</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季的房價指數為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">289.02</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,季微減</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">0.4%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,但年度小增</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">0.6%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,桃園市最新房價季指數為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">287.25</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,季減約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1.9%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,但年度增加</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">0.79%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,至於大台北以外的市場,表現相對穩定,台中今年第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">季的房價指數為</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">284.83</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,季減約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,但年度小增</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2.44%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,與高檔相比則修正約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5.2%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,至於高雄市房價指數,此波修正以來距離高點修正幅度在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">4%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">以內。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">曾敬德表示,從房價指數走勢可以發現房價已經進入盤整階段,若以目前一手市場的買氣與民眾對於房價的保守態度,短期內房價缺乏上漲動能,而回籠的買氣則擇優進場,有助於房市流通性恢復正常,對於價格也有一定支撐。</span></p>