<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">經濟日報【郭及天】</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">根據信義代銷調查，今年雙北市推案量約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5,000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">億至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5,300</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">億元，較去年約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">4,800</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">億至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5,000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">億元成長約</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">5%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">；不過受限於年底有縣市長選舉因素干擾，推案重心將集中在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">329</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">檔期。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">今年新案市場的黑天鵝，將是區域市場建商讓利的破盤價持續出現。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">信義代銷總經理李少康表示，今年大台北重劃區的推案量仍將增加，房地產市場信心漸聚，不過觀望仍占多數。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在低利環境下，使市場除以自住客為主，也有看好長線增值的置產型「類投資客」出現。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">他預期，市中心價格微幅下修，其他區域房價雖然呈盤整趨勢，但最大壓力來自於部分重劃區推案建商的讓利價格破壞。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">李少康表示，過去二年來，不少重劃區都有早期取得低成本土地、推案規模大的建商打出破盤價，帶動整體市場對房價認知的下修，預期今年如新北市新店央北重劃區、新莊副都心的外圍地段，這種讓利破盤價的策略將愈來愈多，加上區域的新推案量或餘屋案量仍居高不下，成為房價的黑天鵝。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">信義代銷研展部主管楊國昌表示，大台北地區近二年新案平均銷售率約僅三成，其中台北市去年更跌破三成、僅有</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">29.7%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，去年第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">季後市場回溫跡象漸趨明朗，雖然仍有不少完銷個案，但都僅限於個案表現。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">楊國昌分析，從過去經驗來看，年度二大檔期</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">329</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">檔期與</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">928</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">檔期，近三年推案高峰多集中在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">329</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">檔期，預期今年底有縣市長選舉因素干擾，因此</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">329</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">檔期將會是今年推案高峰期。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 9.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">北台灣各新案在控制總價下，新案市場小宅產品仍是市場主流，能夠熱銷的個案多半具有地段、產品、價格、品牌、輕鬆付款與符合區域需求等六大因素。</span></p>